The Workforce Crisis of 2030!! And how to start solving it now

“People, workforce planning will become more important than financial planning.” Rainer Strack

This is a statement from good TED talk by Rainer on his interpretation of the workforce challenge of 2030. Supporting much of what this blog has been looking at this past year, but bringing another angle. The key we both trying to get over it is not about the changing workforce it is about the operational workforce transformation to a new workforce landscape of skill shortage, labor shortage and cultural and people change.

You can go to Ted talk with the following link.

http://www.ted.com/talks/rainer_strack_the_surprising_workforce_crisis_of_2030_and_how_to_start_solving_it_now

A couple of extractions:

The investigation and determination of a significant workforce shortage by 2030, but starting now:

The required strategies that will dominate much the thinking

Rainer is talking general workforce, if you take this and bring it into manufacturing, industrial world, the shortages will be all more acute. As pointed out in other surveys from Accenture and others.

This shows in US survey results on filling skilled and highly skilled roles, below is worked example of mid sized company in mid west.  

This is why the move from knowledge to wisdom is key, and emedding of knowledge and wisdom , actionable decisions into the systems is key to accommodate the transformation to dramatically reduced dependency on skilled people. From Rainer’s and other investigations that Operational Systems of the future in the industrial market have 50% + reduction in dependency in skilled and highly skilled workforce.This Ted talk supports this will be the biggest issue in the next 10 years to sustain competitive agility. Like we have seen in 2014, I believe 2015 this acknowledgment and strategies building around workforce change will intensify.    

Reality in the Transformation in the Industrial Training and Knowledge Transfer, With a Power Plant, Why not You?

I have discussed at length the transition of our workforce and that it is not just going to a new generation ( 42% of the workforce by 2020) but it is the dynamic culture of this workforce ( tenure ship less that 2.4 years in the role by 2020) that poses one of the biggest challenges to the industrial operational/ automation workplace.

At a dinner in Florida I was sitting next to a gentlemen in charge of "change management" at a counties power facilities major power stations. A major part of the focus is on training, and knowledge transfer. The conversation initially focused on the challenge of "baby boomer" retiring over the next 5 to 8 years and the knowledge, experience "walking out" the door. It was interesting to understand how stable his  automation and operational work force has been for the last 20 to 30 years. They are a premier employer in the area, and most of the current work force has come from trainee and full careers there, many were there when the power plants were commissioned, growing up with the plants.

Reminding me of a saying by a colleague "that when he joined the workforce on plants, the average age was his age eg 20, now that he is in his late 50s the average age of the workforce on a plant he visits is still his age ( late 50s)." As we had dinner this, saying was ringing in my head as the stories from the power plants came out.

As the dinner progressed the other challengers came out that they were building new gas powered plants, shutting down some of the older power units, and the new workforce was aged less that 35 years old, (most younger) and little to no experience. The shorter tenure ship in a role he had not seen yet, but when discussing he had noticed a trend to rotating roles, and want to progress, new challenges, and with the new gas plants with new technology and learning he saw the challenge not far off.

So he has embarked on a significant Operator Training Simulation Program. Work on three fronts:

1/ power unit operations

2/ power unit maintenance and start up, shut down

3/ environmental / energy management

These are 3 different communities of the workforce, the third being a specialized one which is becoming critical due to government regulations and the heavy fines, so understanding how to seal with different situations including weather and load is key.

The first step is to really structure the training knowledge capture from the “baby boomers" capturing their experience in operations reacting to situations, and performing maintenance. Action and knowledge they take for granted now caught in the simulation models and built in as training scenarios that can play over and over again.

His learnings are also supported in the diagram below:

He also talked about not just simulations, but his learning has been the other training tools, measurements within the OTS tools that he did not initially appreciate (or use until recently) that allow the training to evolve, and improve as well develop the team.

The big walk away I had from this dinner discussion was that he could not see how they would go through this workforce transition, and plant transition, and maintain the current operational levels in efficiency and safety without automated, simulation tools.

His whole story was micro example of what I am seeing across the world, but so many are not acting, he had been implementing a "change management" plan based around simulation learning for the last 4 years, and he was still evolving, but seeing significant returns.

On the new plants, they will have simulation as part of the plant design and operator training simulation from the outset.

Yet a week later across the other side of the world in mining, (where an even more dynamic workforce transition is happening,  with combination significant workforce rotation and retirement) the shift to simulated online training is seen as a "nice to have".

Key as we look forward there are 3 big areas that need to align, Operational performance Asset utilization / efficiency Operational workforce effectiveness. They are all equal and dependent on  each other, and the leading companies will be the ones that master the balance across the three as the dynamics in all three increases.

Next week I will expand on knowledge dissemination, learning transformation that is and will have to happen in the industrial space.